Analisis Risiko Pembangunan Jalan Tol Pada Tahap Konstruksi (Studi Kasus Jalan Tol Pekanbaru-Dumai)

Ari Sandhyavitri, Muhammad Zulfiqar

Abstract


The existing Pekanbaru-Dumai highway (consist of 2-lane 2-way) is as an important transportation system connecting several cities in the Riau Province. It was forecasted that the
highway would be overcapacity by the year 2015. Hence, the toll road was planned to overcome the problem. However, the investment for the construction of the toll road may involves some level of risks and uncertainties, the risk analyses procedure may put into account for managing the risks. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the project risks (during project construction phase). This study measured the value of the risk probabilities and risk impacts that may occur during this construction phase. The magnitude of each single risk is analyzed and simulated using @Risk software package. In order to obtain data input, the filed survey was conducted in two main stages e.i.; preliminary survey, and detailed survey. Then analyzed was carried out based on stochastic analyses. The result findings were then compared to the parameters published by the Puslitbang Pd-T-01-2005-B, 2005. It was identified that four major risks were influenced during the project construction phase, as follow; risk of the project finance,
risk of the project construction, equipment risk and force majeure. The magnitude of the risks that may occur during project construction was identified as a medium risk category, which needs special intention to be preceded..

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